Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Market Size - By Capacity, By Type, By Source, Analysis, Share, & Growth Forecast, 2025 - 2034

Renewable Energy Certificate Market Size

The global renewable energy certificate market was valued at USD 20.9 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach the value of USD 58 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 10.8% from 2025 to 2034. Technological advancements have improved the transparency and efficiency of the global market. The use of blockchain technology, including secure and transparent REC transaction tracking, minimized the risk of fraud and maintaining the integrity of the certification process. Moreover, the creation of standardized certification systems, like the International Renewable Energy Certificate (I-REC) Standard, has made it easier to issue and trade across regions.
 

Certification of renewable energy is quickly increasing its popularity within countries including the U.S. due to the various benefits both individuals and corporations enjoy. The REC type functions as periodic documentation of consumption of renewables, including but not limited to wind, solar, hydroelectric and biomass energy for a specified quantity of electricity generation.
 

Government programs and laws are influential in the expansion of the renewable energy certificate market. Governments globally have made over USD 2 trillion in investments in clean energy since 2020, of which about 80% has been focused on that addresses U.S. These investments usually come in the form of incentives, tax credits, and mandates to spur the use of renewable energy sources. For example, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 grants huge tax benefits to renewable energy projects, hence creating demand for renewable energy certificate.

 

Growing corporate focus on sustainability targets has largely driven the expansion of the market. Corporates in different sectors in North America have been committing themselves to ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets and pursuing net-zero emissions. For instance, in October 2024, according to the IEA data increasing global attention on industrial competitiveness, solar PV production capacity is expected to triple in the U.S. by 2030, supporting global diversification.
 

The April 2025 Trump tariffs on imports of renewable energy like solar panels and wind components will likely drive-up equipment costs and delay new project development within the U.S. This decrease in growth in renewable capacity might cause a narrowing supply of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), particularly within states with strong Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). Since demand continues to be high, REC prices may go up, especially in compliance markets, potentially increasing the cost for utilities and companies looking to achieve clean energy goals.
 

Renewable Energy Certificate Market Trends

The focus of the policies still impacts the demand for renewable energy certificates due to propelling interest on scale adoption of renewables. Furthermore, as of 2023, in the U.S. there are 29 states and Washington D.C. having implemented RPS policies, while 16 states have at least 50% renewable energy targets, and 17 states are working towards a goal of 100% clean electricity by the year 2050. These ambitious targets will require increases in renewable capacity which will, in turn, increase the demand for RECs to remain compliant.
 

As consumers and businesses work to achieve sustainability targets, the renewable energy certificate market continues to expand significantly. For instance, in 2022, the Center for Resource Solutions (CRS) reported that retail transactions worth over 114 million MWh were certified by Green-e Energy, a 4% increase from 2021 which was the last record peak. It is especially impressive that there was active participation of more than 1.3 million retail purchasers, among whom were nearly 314,000 business and subscribers and more than a million residential customers.
 

This is driven by heightened awareness of ecological issues, corporate commitments to net-zero emissions, and the growing popularity of renewable energy for consumers. In particular, the wider availability of bundled and unbundled REC products from utility companies and third-party aggregators makes it easy for many other people to join the renewable energy industry.
 

The introduction of advanced technologies is crucial in improving the transparency and efficiency of the REC market. The application of blockchain and smart tracking technologies has made secure transactions of renewable energy certificates more possible, reduced the chance of certificate fraud, and ensured that the certification process is reliable. All these developments have increased overall trust amongst market participants, thus, increasing investments in renewable energy projects.
 

Renewable Energy Certificate Market Analysis

• The global market for renewable energy certificate market was valued at USD 17.5 billion, USD 19.8 billion and USD 20.9 billion in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. Based on capacity, the market is segmented into 5 MW, > 5 MW - 15 MW, > 15 MW - 30 MW, and > 30 MW, where 5 MW will grow at a CAGR of over 14% till 2034 owing to expansion of solar farms across the globe.
   
• Sizeable enterprises can sell excess energy derived from sources below 5 MW. This is feasible due to open access policies that encourage or provide opportunities to freely enter and exit energy markets in many countries, giving small scale renewable power generators the best opportunities to unlock the worth of their assets.
   
• In addition, these under 5 MW capacities can receive electric power certificates for green clean energy produced and sold. Therefore, the production of certificates becomes a viable financial opportunity for independent power producers, small businesses, and rural based energy cooperatives.
• 15–30 MW projects are strategically important for large-scale expansion of renewable energy capacity. They are sufficiently large to avail economies of scale, but small enough to be implemented in varied locations, such as semi-urban and rural regions.
   
• Scale economies favor big renewable power projects such as above 30 MW, minimizing the cost of electricity per megawatt. The federal tax credits under the IRA, like the Production Tax Credit (PTC), and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) have increased their financial appeal.
   

• The source-based market is divided into bioenergy, hydro, solar, wind, waste, and others, where hydro based certification held a market share of over 48.1% in 2024. This is owing to the beneficial government policies & initiatives towards the adoption of renewable hydro having optimal efficiency.
   
• Bioenergy is known for its dispatchability and competence to pair intermittent resources such as wind and solar. Further, power plants producing electricity from biomass qualify to receive renewable energy certificates under most state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), especially in countries including the U.S. India, Indonesia, among others.
   
• Hydropower is also among the longest established and most dependable renewable resources, especially across North America region. For instance, during 2023, it generated roughly 6.2% of all U.S. electric production and 31.5% of all renewable electricity generation, as determined by the EIA. Multibillion-unit RECs come from large hydros installed in Washington, Oregon, and New York states.
   
• Solar power is the fastest-growing force behind the renewable energy certificate market and will grow at a rate of over 14% till 2034, owing to significant investment towards uplifting solar installation in the region including North America & Asia Pacific. As a reference, in 2023, the U.S. added a record 32.4 GW of solar capacity, up 51% from the previous year, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reported. Utility-scale solar farms generate RECs that are purchased by utilities and companies to meet RPS mandates or sustainability goals.
   

• The North America renewable energy certificate was valued at USD 5 billion, USD 5.4 billion, and USD 5.9 billion in the year 2022, 2023, & 2024 respectively. Recently, renewable energy certificates are gaining importance as they are leading the clean energy revolution in North America.
   
• Renewable energy certificates act as renewable energy compliances and policies emission reduction tools for utilities and businesses to comply with sustainability requirements. The renewable energy certificate market is booming, especially because of policies, corporate purchases, and technological innovation.


• The REC market in Europe is maturing and will grow at a CAGR of over 10% till 2034, driven by robust regulatory frameworks and corporate sustainability goals. Guarantee of Origin (GO) certificates dominate, with countries including Germany, the Netherlands, and France seeing high demand from both utilities and multinational corporations. Increased transparency requirements under the EU Green Deal and updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) are fostering market growth.
   
• Asia Pacific’s REC market is rapidly expanding and reached over USD 4 billion in 2024, supported by the growth of the International REC Standard (I-REC) and rising corporate commitments to net-zero. Countries including India, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines are leveraging I-REC frameworks due to limited domestic certification systems. Multinational corporations with APAC operations are the primary buyers, fueling voluntary market growth. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are strengthening compliance-based REC schemes under national renewable energy targets.
   
• The REC industry is emerging unevenly, with Latin America, the Middle East, and parts of Africa adopting the I-REC system to attract clean energy investment. Brazil, Chile, and South Africa are witnessing a higher growth, offering RECs as a tool to align with international climate commitments and corporate ESG strategies. The voluntary nature of these markets limits volume but creates significant growth potential as global firms push for supply chain decarbonization.
   

Renewable Energy Certificate Market Share

Top 5 companies in the renewable energy certificate industry include 3Degrees, Shell, ENGIE, EDF Trading Limited, and Xpansiv, gathering around over 30% market share. These firms have developed and invested in global networks together with increasingly dynamic technologies and collaborated with other supporters for the advancement of renewable energy.
 

The key market players’ dominance in terms of relationships & contracts along with their insistent industrial developments substantially contributes to their supremacy in the industry. As a reference, in February 2025, Xpansiv announced the availability of a fresh data series intended to increase clarity in North American Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) sector. The product combines market and link data from Xpansiv's Connect portfolio management system and CBL spot exchange with spot and sends OTC costs from Evolution Markets.
 

Renewable Energy Certificate Market Companies

• 3Degrees is a top global climate solutions company grounded in U.S. Established in 2003, the company deals with assisting businesses in speeding up their shift towards a low-carbon economy through renewable energy and carbon offset solutions. It works with Fortune 500 firms, utilities, green building companies, and other entities to create and implement strategies for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and sustainability enhancement. With these strategies and delivery of projects it generated revenue around USD 35.8 million in 2024.
   
• Shell is a multinational energy and petrochemical corporation with strong engineering teams across the globe, operating in over 70 countries. Shell is a vertically integrated business, operating in all the phases of the oil and gas value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, and marketing, and petrochemicals, power generation, and trading. The company has produced revenue of USD 284,312 million in 2024 driven by strong services and solutions all over the world.
   
• EDF Trading Limited is a trading company providing physical energy marketing, specializing in physical commodity sourcing, supply, transport, storage, blending, and conversion, for electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. It is an international asset-backed company within the EDF Group, the European leader in low-carbon energy. It made around USD 135.02 billion revenue in 2024 by delivering a wide range of product portfolio.
   
• ENGIE is a worldwide energy and services leader in low-carbon energy and solutions, with three main business areas: low-carbon power generation, gas infrastructure, and energy services. They are well-established in renewable energy, especially solar and wind energy, and seek to drive the transformation into a carbon neutral economy. By focusing on technological advancements and solutions it has successfully generated approximately USD 83.95 billion revenue in 2024.
   

Key players operating across the renewable energy certificate (REC) industry are:

• 3Degrees
• Ecohz
• Shell
• Statkraft
• Xpansiv
• EDF Trading Limited
• ENGIE
• Enel Green Power
• STX Group
• TerraPass
• BEF
• Targray
• Ameresco
• Sterling Planet
• Constellation
   

Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Industry News

• In April 2024, Google acquired over 1.5 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in Europe, and North America in the last 12 months through new standardized agreements that sealed deals in as few as 2 months. renewable energy certificates related to these projects to utilize emission reductions in future years
   
• In April 2024, Lonza, a worldwide manufacturing partner to the nutraceutical industries, and pharmaceutical, biotech, signed agreements with Clearway Energy Group's to buy Renewable Energy Certificates for newly built Solar Nova 1 and 2 projects in Texas.
   
• In December 2024, Meta contracted to buy, from Invenergy, a total of 760 MW of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) from four of Metas’s solar energy projects located in the U.S. These projects will come online from 2024 to 2027 and will be in Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, and Arkansas.
   
• In April 2024, Apex Clean Energy associated with New York State Energy Research and Development Authority is planning to sign a renewable energy certificate (REC) buying contract to take the entire capacity of renewable energy certificates from Heritage Wind, a project in Orleans, New York.
   

This renewable energy certificate (REC) market research report includes in-depth coverage of the industry with estimates & forecast in terms of revenue (USD Billion) from 2021 to 2034, for the following segments:

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Market, By Capacity

• 5 MW,
• > 5 MW - 15 MW
• > 15 MW - 30 MW
• > 30 MW

Market, By Type

• Voluntary
• Compliance

Market, By Source

• Bioenergy
• Hydro
• Solar
• Wind
• Waste
• Others

The above information has been provided for the following regions:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Rest of World